Precedents
World · Precedent tracker

Measures outlive the conditions that produced them

Bar length is time in force; the marker is where the cause ended; the tail after it is the part nobody forecasts.

MeasureDurationStill on
Routing diversion — passage 05Yes
Slot auction — passage 01Yes
Item-level export controlYes
Emergency import waiverNo
War-risk premium zoneYes
Grain corridor arrangementLapsed
0612182430+
■ Cause active■ In force after cause ended
What the tail is made of

A measure’s tail is made of the work done after its launch: contracts rewritten, routes recast, staff assigned, fees collected and a rulebook that now has owners. Ending it requires a decision, while leaving it in place often requires none.

Cause versus mechanism

The cause is the event that made action urgent. The mechanism is the auction, waiver, control or premium rule built in answer to it. The event can clear while the mechanism keeps serving a different interest, which is why the original announcement is a poor guide to its withdrawal.

Four of the six recorded measures remain in force after their stated cause ended; the ratio, recorded in the ARCANE precedent tracker on Sep 16 2026, is the reading.
Case notes
Routing diversion

The diversion began as a response to an incident at a passage, but the route remained in place after that stated cause ended. The resulting schedules and operating routines required a fresh choice to restore the old route, not merely the disappearance of the original danger.

Slot auction

The auction answered restricted passage capacity, then became a standing way to allocate scarce transit. Its tail belongs to the mechanism: an established allocation tool can remain in use even when the condition that made rationing urgent has eased.

Emergency import waiver

The emergency import waiver is the lapse counter-example. Its shortage cleared and the waiver expired without renewal, showing that a written end point and an administrator willing to let it work can reconnect withdrawal to the cause.

How to forecast duration
01
Find the off switch

Name the institution that can end the measure and establish whether anyone there must initiate that decision.

02
Check for an expiry

Read the operative text for a sunset, renewal test or automatic lapse rather than relying on the temporary language of the announcement.

03
Price the sunk cost

Identify the routes, contracts, systems and fee streams built around the measure, then identify who loses when they are unwound.

04
Separate cause from mechanism

Treat the end of the stated event as one observation and the withdrawal of the rule as another; they are often different decisions.

Precedents — World · ARCANE